How the Year Will Play Out I’ve run analyses and made predictions about RIR runnout, most recently in my End of 2013 blog post. So how will 2014 play? Here’s a future year in review. Life continues as usual through January and February. IPv6 deployment increases, maybe another country has their largest ISP roll out IPv6. IPv6 […]
IPv6
ARIN and LACNIC Run Rates, End of 2013
It’s the last day of 2013, and a good time to consider where we are with IPv4, and where we’re going. Geoff Huston shows excellent charts of RIR run rates, and his predictions of runout are the standard for comparison. He includes some additional allocations from IANA in his calculations, and shows a probability of runout for […]
Record of Transfers in the ARIN Region
One of the wonderful things about ARIN is that they provide so much data. Here, from their list of specified transfers is a list of all transfers effected through ARIN, to date. IPv4 Block Transfer Date Buyer Seller #Addresses 204.16.240.0/21 Oct-09 TeraSwitch Nortel 2,048 216.243.96.0/20 Nov-09 Lobo Internet Services 4,096 198.32.100.0/22 Dec-09 Equinix EP.net 1,024 198.32.104.0/21 Dec-09 […]
Recent Large Allocations from ARIN
Every few days I look at ARIN’s home page to see how many addresses they have remaining, and to see if there have been any large allocations in the past few days. Sometimes they go for days with not change, then suddenly hand out a few thousand. Usually when I notice a big change, I’ll update my […]
Top Electronics and IPv6
In lots of presentations I’ve talked about the three-legged stool of the industry: ISPs, content, and consumer electronics. I recently compared the level of deployment by ISPs and content, and found that ISPs are slightly behind but growing fast, while content is ahead but stagnant. What about home electronics? There’s a reason we don’t see web pages detailing the […]
LACNIC Run Rate
A while back I wrote an ARIN guest post describing how to project they would run out of IPv4 addresses. APNIC’s Geoff Huston famously predicts the runout date of each of the RIRs, as does Tony Hain. But I think everybody ought to be able to do their own analysis. I’ve also recent run the same kind of data for LACNIC. […]
Content vs. Eyeballs
For years, there’s been a chicken-and-egg between eyeball networks and content providers, each saying there’s no point in enabling IPv6 until the other side did. Users don’t need IPv6 until there’s content. Content doesn’t need IPv6 if nobody will see it. And occasionally the consumer electronics folks would blame both of them. World IPv6 Day in […]
Predicting IPv6
Predicting the future is easy. Predicting it correctly is incredibly difficult. The only information we have is the past, and for the most part, we try to guess that the future will look kind of like some part of the past. In the past, new technologies have been adopted according to an S-curve. That is, […]
Reasons to Like IPv6
In a recent unscientific poll, I asked members of an IPv6 group on Facebook: “In what year will 10% (or more) of new ISP customers be IPv6-only (or IPv4-degraded)?” 39% of respondents said IPv4 would be degraded or unavailable for many users in 2014, and 89% said that would be true by 2017. There was […]
IPv6-only: You Never Know
I sat down in the LACNIC21 conference this morning, opened my laptop and checked several web pages, with seven or eight browser tabs open. Later, I got up, walked around, came back, sat down, and continued reading my Twitter feed. I clicked a link and it failed, so I went looking for another site with the same […]